Record of the Year
“Worship,” Jon Batiste
“Not Strong Enough,” Boygenius
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
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“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie,” Billie Eilish
“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
“Kill Bill,” SZA
Will win: “Flowers”
Could win: “What Was I Made For?”; “Anti-Hero”
Three reasons to put money on “Flowers,” if you’re a brave gambler: (a) It felt ubiquitous, in an age where the monoculture no longer exists; (b) it feels like an anthem for everybody, as opposed to niche, novel or micro-targeted in its lyrics; (c) it’s a bop. Does that mean it was actually the best? Hardly, but it did come in like a wrecking ball, and sometimes — not always — mainstream voters who don’t have a vested interest in any of the other nominees will let their admiration for the craft that leads to a hit lead to an anointing of the year’s most obvious monster.
Eilish’s “Barbie” theme could (and for my money, should) sneak in the top slot here, with virtually universal love for the soul-searching ballad. The only serious reason to suppose it won’t is that a lot of voters may feel that it’s predestined to win the best song Oscar, so that’ll be enough reward for it. (If “What Was I Made For?” does win the top Grammy and the Oscar, it’ll be the first tune to do so since “My Heart Will Go On” in ’97.)
Months back, we were predicting that most of the top categories would be a Swift vs. SZA battle. That could still turn out to be the case. The only thing either “Anti-Hero” and “Kill Bill” have going against them is how spectacularly peculiar they are, lyrically — which should be a good thing, but isn’t, always. When voters are making an assessment of what best represents a year as a whole, will they pick a song about feeling like a monster, or homicidal impulses toward an ex? Or for that matter, Rodrigo’s “Vampire,” a slightly profane song about a celebrity parasite? It’d be great if they went with one of those wonderful, slightly sour picks, but the best bet is still probably on a song that combines tempo with I-will-survive positivity.