Bush: No Plans to Attack Iran...

[Volpone]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The White House said Sunday it is not planning military action against Iran...

Asked whether the United States is preparing for a potential military conflict with Iran, President Bush's national security adviser Stephen Hadley told NBC's "Meet the Press," "No, the president has said very clearly that the issues we have with Iran should be solved diplomatically."
...

So what do you think this is about? Is it that Iran called the bluff and we're backing down? Does Dubya really not have the cards? Or is boxing a more accurate metaphor? Is this just the "rope-a-dope". Right now Dubya doesn't have the troops in place--or the political leverage with the American people. But is he acting weak in the hopes that Abkjgasigha;sfgad will get sloppy and give him the opportunity he wants?

 

[A_Real_Prick666]

I think its a bit of all of the above, because key to the situation is that Bush has time. The EU and other middle eastern countries are watching Iran closely as well, and don't want any sudden moves. There will not be a diplomatic solution from Bush unless it's the iron fist in the velvet glove approach. Putting the economic and financial squeeze on PM Ami in Iran is slowly producing dissent within the population as well as with the ruling religious class. The Iranian PM is being reigned in, and will continue to be if Bush wrachets up further sanctions.

From a military perspective, The U.S. is building very expensive mega-bases in Iraq in the country-side - indicating a longterm presence in the country. Over time they must secure the borders of Iraq, abandon participation in the civil war & turn swift attention to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The Taliban and Al Qaida must be dealt with - even if it means a swift and merciless purging of the western Pakistan provinces from which they operate.

Having done this there will be no need to actually invade Iran, because they will be sitting there shitting themselves about what the U.S. "could" do. Deterrance is good.

 

[Cranky Bastard]

Iran will get the bomb and the US will do nothing.

 

[Volpone]

I think its a bit of all of the above, because key to the situation is that Bush has time. The EU and other middle eastern countries are watching Iran closely as well, and don't want any sudden moves. There will not be a diplomatic solution from Bush unless it's the iron fist in the velvet glove approach. Putting the economic and financial squeeze on PM Ami in Iran is slowly producing dissent within the population as well as with the ruling religious class. The Iranian PM is being reigned in, and will continue to be if Bush wrachets up further sanctions.

From a military perspective, The U.S. is building very expensive mega-bases in Iraq in the country-side - indicating a longterm presence in the country. Over time they must secure the borders of Iraq, abandon participation in the civil war & turn swift attention to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The Taliban and Al Qaida must be dealt with - even if it means a swift and merciless purging of the western Pakistan provinces from which they operate.

Having done this there will be no need to actually invade Iran, because they will be sitting there shitting themselves about what the U.S. "could" do. Deterrance is good.

Exactly. As I've mentioned over at Wordforge, I'm reading a 1980 book by the Army War College on what happened in Vietnam. One of the main points in the book is that in Korea we focused on fighting North Koreans (and Chinese) and let the South Koreans handle their internal security and any nation-building. In Vietnam, we got bogged down with hunting "insurgents" and nation-building while utterly failing to stop the influx of North Vietnamese infiltrators.

Now it can be argued the best way to stop NVA infiltrators would've been to wade into N Vietnam in force and bring the fight to them. For various reasons, we decided not to do that--just like we opted not to attack the Chinese infrastructure. (MacArthur claims in his autobiography that he never wanted to invade China, but he sure as heck wanted to bomb Chinese troop and supply staging areas north of the Yalu. He also wanted to blow the piss out of China's military and industrial complex and let the Nationalist Troops from Taiwan invade.

We can't afford to incur into Pakistani territory for a couple political reasons, but we sure as heck can focus on tightening up the border there (with possibly a couple under-the-table raids into Pakistan). And we need to tighten up--pretty much the whole Iraqi border--Syria, Iran, even Saudi Arabia. Get out of Iraqi peacekeeping ASAP and work on stopping the damned infiltrators.

 

[Cranky Bastard]

blah blah blah fucking blah yak yak bullshit blah....
We can't afford to incur into Pakistani territory for a couple political reasons...

Pertinent - and the reason we will not win.